state by state 10 lb odds

[azfisher]

Found this on Facebook. Don't know the source, what do you all think? Is this accurate for your state?

[azsouth]

I don't know but some people have better odds I think.

[BOZ]

That’s pretty cool. According to GWRD there were 5 LMB 10lb + that we’re certified trophies (10lbs or better here in GA for LMB) caught in GA last year with the biggest being 14lbs and 25”, and a 28 incher with no verified weight.

[BOZ]

There’s no telling how many were caught and not submitted for citations though

[VolunteerSwimbaits]

Seems about right yeah...

[chefchris]

Id say the new england states are pretty accurate. mass at 9%, seems high, but some big fish come thru the ice on live bait each season. 

we do have pin programs for catch and release by length 

one issue we have up here is most states you have to kill the fish for a state record, so if you want the record you have to make that call to keep and kill, and you have to disclose location, which I'm sure guys say another pond than where it was actually caught 

the other issue is if you know where people are from you could figure out where they're fishing (sometimes based on location or past pics) so even if big fish do get caught, most guys aren't saying anything, one reason you dont see a lot of cast to catch videos up here. 

I personally only know of 1, 10lb fish caught in mass a few seasons back. and a few big 9lbers. 

RI record was 10lbs 6oz for like 40 years, was broken in 2016 and is now 11lbs 3oz. 

with a possible job oppurtunity in Texas I like the 32% increase in my chances. 

[FishDr]

I’d be curious to see the following:

- the actual values for the “<1%” states

- the source of the data they used.

i think the number for CO is correct - I’ve heard of a single DD being caught here in the last 18 years. It was released and was not submitted to any award program.

[boylah]

You're just telling me i have no excuse for catching one since i'm in NorCal ; ))

[VolunteerSwimbaits]

I think we can all agree that by fishing swimbaits, we DOUBLE our chances.

[azsouth]

what I can tell you from personal experience, I know several people that have 14+ lbs on the wall and never put it out there, one of the guys I am talking about caught a LMB on my boat years ago that was 29" length and 27" girth and he let it go ( my scale batteries were dead)  can't tell you exact weight but it is the biggest LMB I have seen.

[CG_Fishes]

NY has a much higher chance than <1%, there are multiple DDs caught every year outta here, nobody talks about em though because they are all out of super small "secret" spots that would be destroyed once news that a fish of that caliber was caught outta there

[Volfan]

@FishDr - was that a smallmouth? I know of one that was on the local CO forum caught when I lived there...it was beautiful. I may be over on what the weight was though.

[Mossypumpkin]

Maine is accurate. I’m not positive a 10 has even been caught here since the 11-10 record from 49 years ago. However, some bonehead on the FB page this was posted says he caught a 12.3 and 10.3 same day 

[JJunger07]

I agree with it for WV but won't stop me from trying, there's still a chance.

[charlie.m.jr]

i feel like the numbers for Tennessee and Kentucky are both low given the fact that the TN river runs through both states. i know of a lot of people that have caught fish 10lbs or better off of the river and it still continues to produce them to this day.